Outlook · October 29, 2026 Original NOAA / SPC outlooks
Eight days at a glance Select a date to explore Thu Day 1 Oct 29 Thunderstorms Fri Day 2 Oct 30 Marginal Risk Sat Day 3 Oct 31 No area shown Sun Day 4 Nov 1 Predictability Too Low Mon Day 5 Nov 2 Predictability Too Low Tue Day 6 Nov 3 Predictability Too Low Wed Day 7 Nov 4 Predictability Too Low Thu Day 8 Nov 5 Potential Too Low Thursday, Oct 29, 2026
Outlook for this location
Thunderstorms Thunderstorms are possible in this location, but no severe weather category is shown. This is not a guarantee that severe weather cannot occur.
↳ Across this outlook The highest categorical risk at this location is marginal risk on Oct 30
See the full outlook ↓ Forecast product Overall Tornado Wind Hail
National context SPC Day 1 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ This national map gives the bigger picture. See the dated answer for Mesa on this page. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Oct 29, 2026, 9:58 AM CDT SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 7:35 AM CDT Valid from Oct 29, 2026, 8:00 AM CDT Valid until Oct 30, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT View the official SPC source ↗
National context Tornado Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The city risk summary remains the overall outlook; this map does not calculate a separate local hazard probability.
No area reaches the 2% SPC contour threshold in this national outlook. Below the displayed threshold does not mean zero risk.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 7:35 AM CDT Valid from Oct 29, 2026, 8:00 AM CDT Valid until Oct 30, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT View the official SPC source ↗
National context Wind Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of damaging thunderstorm winds or gusts of at least 50 knots (58 mph) within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The city risk summary remains the overall outlook; this map does not calculate a separate local hazard probability.
No area reaches the 5% SPC contour threshold in this national outlook. Below the displayed threshold does not mean zero risk.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 7:35 AM CDT Valid from Oct 29, 2026, 8:00 AM CDT Valid until Oct 30, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT View the official SPC source ↗
National context Hail Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of hail at least 1 inch in diameter within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The city risk summary remains the overall outlook; this map does not calculate a separate local hazard probability.
No area reaches the 5% SPC contour threshold in this national outlook. Below the displayed threshold does not mean zero risk.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 7:35 AM CDT Valid from Oct 29, 2026, 8:00 AM CDT Valid until Oct 30, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT View the official SPC source ↗ Friday, Oct 30, 2026
Outlook for this location
Marginal Risk 1 of 5
The SPC outlook places this location in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
↳ Across this outlook The highest categorical risk at this location is marginal risk on Oct 30
See the full outlook ↓ Forecast product Overall Tornado Wind Hail
National context SPC Day 2 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ This national map gives the bigger picture. See the dated answer for Mesa on this page. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Oct 29, 2026, 9:58 AM CDT SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 12:16 AM CDT Valid from Oct 30, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT Valid until Oct 31, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT View the official SPC source ↗
National context Tornado Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The city risk summary remains the overall outlook; this map does not calculate a separate local hazard probability.
No area reaches the 2% SPC contour threshold in this national outlook. Below the displayed threshold does not mean zero risk.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 12:16 AM CDT Valid from Oct 30, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT Valid until Oct 31, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT View the official SPC source ↗
National context Wind Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of damaging thunderstorm winds or gusts of at least 50 knots (58 mph) within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The city risk summary remains the overall outlook; this map does not calculate a separate local hazard probability.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 12:16 AM CDT Valid from Oct 30, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT Valid until Oct 31, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT View the official SPC source ↗
National context Hail Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of hail at least 1 inch in diameter within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The city risk summary remains the overall outlook; this map does not calculate a separate local hazard probability.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 12:16 AM CDT Valid from Oct 30, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT Valid until Oct 31, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT View the official SPC source ↗ Saturday, Oct 31, 2026
Outlook for this location
No area shown No thunderstorm or severe weather area is shown for this location in this outlook. This does not guarantee clear weather.
↳ Across this outlook The highest categorical risk at this location is marginal risk on Oct 30
See the full outlook ↓ Forecast product Overall Severe probability
National context SPC Day 3 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ This national map gives the bigger picture. See the dated answer for Mesa on this page. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
Day 3 combines severe hazards; separate tornado, wind and hail probability maps are not issued for this day.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Oct 29, 2026, 9:58 AM CDT SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 1:34 AM CDT Valid from Oct 31, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT Valid until Nov 1, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗
National context Severe probability Official SPC graphic · National view Enlarge map ↗ Chance of any severe thunderstorm hazard within 25 miles of a point. This is a national SPC map. The city risk summary remains the overall outlook; this map does not calculate a separate local hazard probability.
No area reaches the 5% SPC contour threshold in this national outlook. Below the displayed threshold does not mean zero risk.
Conditional intensity No intensity area is highlighted in this national outlook. This does not mean the hazard or significant severe weather is impossible.
Day 3 combines severe hazards; separate tornado, wind and hail probability maps are not issued for this day.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 1:34 AM CDT Valid from Oct 31, 2026, 7:00 AM CDT Valid until Nov 1, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Sunday, Nov 1, 2026
Status for the whole day
Predictability Too Low There is too much uncertainty for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% severe weather area for this day.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
↳ Across this outlook The highest categorical risk at this location is marginal risk on Oct 30
See the full outlook ↓ Forecast product Overall
National context SPC Day 4 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ This national map gives the bigger picture. See the dated answer for Mesa on this page. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Oct 29, 2026, 9:58 AM CDT SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 2:42 AM CDT Valid from Nov 1, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 2, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Monday, Nov 2, 2026
Status for the whole day
Predictability Too Low There is too much uncertainty for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% severe weather area for this day.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
↳ Across this outlook The highest categorical risk at this location is marginal risk on Oct 30
See the full outlook ↓ Forecast product Overall
National context SPC Day 5 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ This national map gives the bigger picture. See the dated answer for Mesa on this page. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Oct 29, 2026, 9:58 AM CDT SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 2:42 AM CDT Valid from Nov 2, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026
Status for the whole day
Predictability Too Low There is too much uncertainty for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% severe weather area for this day.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
↳ Across this outlook The highest categorical risk at this location is marginal risk on Oct 30
See the full outlook ↓ Forecast product Overall
National context SPC Day 6 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ This national map gives the bigger picture. See the dated answer for Mesa on this page. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Oct 29, 2026, 9:58 AM CDT SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 2:42 AM CDT Valid from Nov 3, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 4, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Wednesday, Nov 4, 2026
Status for the whole day
Predictability Too Low There is too much uncertainty for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% severe weather area for this day.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
↳ Across this outlook The highest categorical risk at this location is marginal risk on Oct 30
See the full outlook ↓ Forecast product Overall
National context SPC Day 7 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ This national map gives the bigger picture. See the dated answer for Mesa on this page. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Oct 29, 2026, 9:58 AM CDT SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 2:42 AM CDT Valid from Nov 4, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 5, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ Thursday, Nov 5, 2026
Status for the whole day
Potential Too Low The potential for organized severe storms is too low for SPC to draw a 15% or 30% area for this day. This does not rule out severe weather.
This is a status for the entire Storm Prediction Center outlook that day, not a measured local probability.
↳ Across this outlook The highest categorical risk at this location is marginal risk on Oct 30
See the full outlook ↓ Forecast product Overall
National context SPC Day 8 outlook NOAA / Storm Prediction Center Enlarge map ↗ This national map gives the bigger picture. See the dated answer for Mesa on this page. The full official legend and issuance are preserved.
About this outlook + Latest published outlook dataset. The original official graphic and its printed legend are preserved.
Fetched Oct 29, 2026, 9:58 AM CDT SPC issued Oct 29, 2026, 2:42 AM CDT Valid from Nov 5, 2026, 6:00 AM CST Valid until Nov 6, 2026, 6:00 AM CST View the official SPC source ↗ The full eight-day outlook Mesa, AZ · 2026
Color has a meaning. Five categories describe increasing severe weather risk. Thunderstorms sit outside that five-level scale. Extended outlooks use probability areas or a status for the day.
1 MarginalRisk 2 SlightRisk 3 EnhancedRisk 4 ModerateRisk 5 HighRisk